Sector Update | 27 November 2025
Financials: Banks
BFSI: Changing contours; redefining boundaries
Sector market cap rises to INR105t; banks account for 54% (70% in FY15)
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India’s BFSI sector has undergone a structural transformation with the emergence of
new sub-segments, backed by tech innovation, streamlined distribution channels and
improved product offerings. This report thus provides a top-down view on how the
sector’s boundaries are getting redefined. Please refer to our earlier thematic report
“The
Changing Face of BFSI”
for a detailed context.
The BFSI sector’s market cap has surged 60x from INR1.8t in 2005 to INR105t in Oct’25,
while banks’ share in the BFSI market cap has moderated from 70% in FY15 to 54% in
Oct’25.
Over the past five years, listed new-age platforms (capital markets + fintechs) have
contributed ~11% of incremental BFSI market cap. These businesses have scaled up
rapidly, led by technological innovation, increasing financialization and buoyant
capital markets.
BFSI (banks + NBFCs) sector’s profitability has thus grown at a robust pace to reach
INR5.3t in FY25 from INR1.1t in FY15. This growth momentum is getting further
reinforced by the rapid scale-up of several new BFSI companies, which have deepened
their profit pools.
We note that select unlisted BFSI companies currently command ~INR9t of total value
(refer Exhibit 1), representing ~20% of total non-bank market cap.
With several new marquee names due for listing (ICICI Prudential MF, SBI MF,
PhonePe, etc.), we expect BFSI dominance in major indices to continue over the
coming years. Moreover, the improvement in underlying profitability (18-20%
estimated earnings CAGR over FY26-28E for MOSL Banking/NBFC universe) further
enables consistent wealth creation opportunities for investors.
BFSI market cap crosses INR100t; 25% CAGR in past three years
India’s BFSI sector has experienced a dramatic expansion, with its market cap
surging 60x from INR1.8t in 2005 to INR105t in Oct’25, implying a ~23% CAGR
(25% CAGR over FY22-25). While banks remain the core, their share in total BFSI
market cap has fallen from ~85% in 2005 to ~54% today, underscoring the
emergence of new business segments. Insurance which was just 1% of total BFSI
market cap in FY15 has jumped to 12% now and capital markets from negligible
levels now accounts for ~6% of total BFSI sector market cap. Fintechs, non-
existent in 2015, now make up ~4% of total BFSI market cap, and with more
listings expected over the coming years, this segment will continue to gain share
in the overall pie.
Across BFSI sub-segments, the pace of market-cap expansion has been highly
divergent, highlighting how the value creation has shifted beyond traditional
lenders, which used to represent all of BFSI until nearly a decade ago. While
banks grew significantly from INR1.49t in 2005 to INR56.8t in Oct’25, a ~38x
increase, their CAGR has moderated over time as the base expanded. NBFCs
witnessed the sharper structural rerating, rising from INR0.26t to INR25.8t
(~100x growth) over the same period. Insurance and capital markets have
Pace of market cap growth differs sharply across sub-segments
Nitin Aggarwal - Research Analyst
(Nitin.Aggarwal@MotilalOswal.com)
Research Analyst: Dixit Sankharva
(Dixit.sankharva@MotilalOswal.com) |
Disha Singhal
(Disha Singhal@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.