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Better times ahead

9 March 2023 As consumer companies continue to struggle in an uncertain operating environment, ITC is better placed than peers with accelerated earnings growth over the past two years, especially in FY23, and strong earnings visibility Healthy cigarette volume growth in the recent quarters is likely to sustain in the near term, leading to the best three-year and four-year average volume growth for over a decade. With no high indirect tax increase in the FY24 budget, the operating environment is far more conducive compared to the punitive regime of the preceding years. At a time when consumer companies have witnessed a slowdown, cigarette volumes for ITC have registered a strong double-digit YoY growth in the recent quarters and three-year and four-year average volume growth have been in mid- single digits. In a relatively less stringent indirect tax environment, ITC is better placed owing to its judicious pricing actions and its recent recuperation of some temporary market share loss in the capsule segment.

ITC Ltd                                            : Earnings visibility continues to drive outperformance

With the phenol/acetone spread remaining flat QoQ at ~INR90/kg in 4QFY23 till date, margins are also expected to remain subdued. Upcoming capacities of MIBK (40ktpa), MIBC (8ktpa) and Polycarbonate should drive volume growth going ahead. It could be an ideal import substitution play, considering Indias entire MIBK demand of ~30,000mtpa is exclusively met through imports. According to ChemAnalyst, Indias Polycarbonate demand stood at 180,000mtpa in FY22 and is expected to grow by ~4% over the next decade, driven by the building and construction materials end market. Deepak Nitrite Nifty - Rebased Covestro, the world leader in Polycarbonate, expects a 4% CAGR in the global polycarbonate market till CY26, while the supply is expected to grow by 5-6% during the same period, led by major capacity additions in China by Hainan Huasheng, ZPC, SABIC-Sinopec, Wanhua and Shemna.

Deepak Nitrite Ltd                                 : Headwinds to persist as new capacities are added

VBLs robust supply chain, along with backward integration facilities (including newly commissioned J&K facility) for production of preforms, crowns, plastic closures, corrugated boxes, corrugated pads, plastic crates and shrink-wrap films, provides an edge to the company in an expanding market. The companys newly commissioned J&K facility will provide an opportunity to enter into this territory. Revenue grew 49% YoY to INR131.7b in CY22 (27% CAGR over CY17-22), aided by robust volume growth (up 41% YoY; 24% CAGR over CY17-22), higher realization (up 6% YoY to INR164/unit case) and a favorable product mix. Domestic volumes grew 44% YoY, led by the post-pandemic recovery in demand, the expansion of the distribution network and robust demand for new products, with Sting emerging as a key growth driver (Refer Varun Beverages Nifty - Rebased To address the cost pressures faced in CY22, VBL increased prices of select SKUs and rationalized discounts and schemes.

Varun Beverages Ltd                                : Focus on sustainable growth path

2 February 2023 TTCHs consolidate EBITDA missed our estimate due to lower volume (soda ash/salt 156/333KMT v/s estimate of 179/353KMT) and margins (23.3% v/s estimate of 29.5%) in the India business and a subdued performance in Rallis (EBITDA of INR533m v/s estimate of INR725m). It was offset by better-than-expected EBITDA/MT in TCNA (up 2x YoY to USD65), TCEHL (2.7x YoY to GBP94) and TCAHL (4.7x YoY to USD219). We maintain our FY23/FY24/FY25 EBITDA estimates and TTCH reported revenue of INR41.5b (est. INR42.4b) in 3QFY23, up 32% YoY. EBITDA margin expanded 490bp YoY to 22.2% (est.

Tata Chemical                                      : Higher realization drives earnings

16 February 2023 NEST declared an in-line set of results; however, the tonnage dip in 4QCY22 (as shared in the company presentation) compared to preceding quarters indicate that the high inflation is likely to curb volume growth in the near-term. The company is planning a capex of INR50b over the next three years, which is expected to boost volume growth, especially in Prepared Dishes (Maggi) and Chocolates and Confectionary over the medium term. Valuations of 56xCY24 EPS fully capture the stocks upside potential over the next year. We reiterate our Neutral stance on the stock. reported net sales growth of 13.8% YoY to INR42.6b (in-line), led by improved volume and mix. Export sales grew 17.1% YoY to INR1.7b. EBITDA grew 14.8% YoY to INR9.

Nestle India Ltd                                   : In-line results; volumes under pressure

While there would be an adverse impact of price reduction due to the inclusion of Ceftum and T-Bact under the National list of essential medicines (NLEM), GLXO is expected to mitigate the impact through higher volume sale. Further, the company is focussed on launching its Shingrix vaccine. Unlike peers in the domestic formulation industry, GLXO is expected to have fewer new launches in the market. The WPI-led price increase is expected from Apr23, which would also partially offset the adverse impact of price reduction under NLEM. The favorable demand for these therapies at the industry level, supported by effective marketing, is expected to drive better than industry growth for GLXO. GLXO has allocated MR force (~200) for marketing its soon-to-be launched Shingrix vaccine. GLXO witnessed a 10% YoY growth in general medicine category (80% of total sales), while vaccines witnessed 34% YoY decline, adversely affecting the overall performance of GLXO.

Outlook - A Mixed Bag

17 February 2023 Vista Foods India is a part of OSI international, a Chicago-based long-term global supplier to McDonalds. It started the supply chain 1.5 years before McDonalds opened its first store in the country in the mid-1990s. It is a key player for McDonalds India in the meat (mainly chicken) and vegetable patties/nuggets processing supply chain. McDonalds has been able to increase the average weight of chicken to nearly 2x, since the beginning of its operations in India. Being privy to McDonalds expansion plans over the next three years, Vista is a critical component of the much vaunted cluster-based approach, which lowers the cost of the supply chain. It works with McDonalds India on inventory planning, replenishment, data analytics, demand planning, warehousing, transport (to and from vendors and stores), and vendor payment mechanisms, etc. Its association with McDonalds goes back to the days when it started operations in India.

Westlife Foodworld Ltd                             : Supply chain bolsters growth prospects

However, its oil/condensate production from domestic fields (ex-JVs) declined to 19.5mmt in FY22 from a peak of 26.5mmt in FY05. Similarly, gas production from domestic fields (ex-JVs) reached a peak of 24.7bcm in FY19, but that too decreased steadily to 20.6bcm in FY22. At the peak, this field would add ~10% to ONGCs domestic oil production and ~20% to its current domestic gas production. Since the implementation of the existing gas price mechanism from Nov14, domestic APM gas prices have remained below USD3/mmBtu (NCV) for 10 quarters due to the high weightage of Henry Hub in the pricing formula. For another eight quarters, domestic gas prices have remained below USD3.5/mmBtu. Comparing these with ONGCs gas production cost of ~USD3/ mmBtu leads us to infer that it has been severely impacted by low gas prices. In light of the above, the recent recommendations of Kirit Parikh, valuing domestic APM gas prices to 10% of Brent could be a boon, if implemented.

The great conjunction for ONGC in 2023

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